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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.